Air Force
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
69  Jaci Smith JR 19:49
99  Carina Gillespie SR 19:58
143  Gillespie Carina SR 20:07
188  Mahala Norris FR 20:14
563  Lindsey Blanks SO 20:56
680  Giulianna Vessa SR 21:06
869  Shanna Burns JR 21:19
876  Teri Brady SO 21:20
1,088  Katherine Burnham SR 21:34
1,158  Maria Mettler FR 21:39
National Rank #22 of 348
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 57.2%
Most Likely Finish 20th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 3.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 30.7%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 58.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jaci Smith Carina Gillespie Gillespie Carina Mahala Norris Lindsey Blanks Giulianna Vessa Shanna Burns Teri Brady Katherine Burnham Maria Mettler
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 596 19:53 19:47 20:11 20:48 20:47 21:08 21:02
Rocky Mountain Shootout 09/30
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 749 20:03 20:26 20:06 20:58 21:05 21:06 22:06
Mountain West Championship 10/27 718 19:47 20:07 20:21 21:09 21:05 22:06 22:12 21:36 21:39
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 604 19:36 19:49 20:19 20:49 20:50 21:21 21:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 57.2% 19.8 502 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.5 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.4 2.8 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.4 2.2 3.1 3.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.5
Region Championship 100% 5.3 163 0.1 9.4 18.2 30.5 26.1 10.6 3.5 1.6 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jaci Smith 83.7% 70.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3
Carina Gillespie 69.4% 89.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Gillespie Carina 61.6% 115.8 0.1 0.1
Mahala Norris 58.4% 135.7 0.1
Lindsey Blanks 57.2% 225.2
Giulianna Vessa 57.2% 235.0
Shanna Burns 57.2% 243.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jaci Smith 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.6 4.9 5.4 6.7 6.6 6.3 7.1 5.7 5.7 5.0 3.7 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 1.5
Carina Gillespie 19.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.1 2.5 4.0 4.9 4.4 5.4 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.5 4.2 5.2 4.2 4.6 4.7
Gillespie Carina 24.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.0 5.1 3.9 3.9
Mahala Norris 29.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.3
Lindsey Blanks 70.6
Giulianna Vessa 82.0
Shanna Burns 94.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 9.4% 94.7% 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.5 8.9 3
4 18.2% 89.0% 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.1 0.4 2.0 16.2 4
5 30.5% 66.2% 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.7 2.2 10.3 20.2 5
6 26.1% 37.5% 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 2.8 16.3 9.8 6
7 10.6% 17.0% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 8.8 1.8 7
8 3.5% 5.7% 0.2 0.1 3.3 0.2 8
9 1.6% 1.6 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 57.2% 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.3 2.9 3.9 4.7 6.3 8.2 10.4 11.1 6.3 42.9 0.1 57.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 17.5% 2.0 0.3
Florida State 4.9% 2.0 0.1
Alabama 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.3
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0